News heading that I notice today:
"Kids were found shooting at a teacher in a local high school"
"Kids attach janitor after the were caught vandalizing the school. Now janitors request security."
"US is tentatively suggest that they pull out of Iraq in 2011. Government in Iraq want it to be definite."
"We are seeing reverse illegal immigration going back home. This is according to an interview with an illegal alien"
These headings trouble me. I been on this earth for some time now and I've always enjoyed observing my surroundings. I think my mind tend to always just track. No very scientific or anything, but it just measure the difference between the before and after. But it seems like ever since I been out of school I've noticed that there is a continuous drive to be more liberal. In school we were taught about change and how we should embrass it. Somehow liberal represent being American, the freedom, the advancement of civil rights, or even just go as far as being more advance society. Yet as I can remember it, people and many of them liberals, continue to complain how things has gone bad and we need to improve. Yet if you really look at it, what drove all of us and especially our ancestors, it is the conservative nature that brought us to this land. The discipline, the control, and the limited chaos is what drove many of the opportunities that were offered to live the dream. Yes like freedom it self, these opportunities are not free, but it comes with a price. Often the price that we do not want to see or admit. I think what many people does not realize is that life is about stratification. I will comment on this later. But maybe now it is a time where we start saying 'No' instead of trying to keep saying 'Yes'. That 'Yes' should not be back by our lame and irresponsible use of the word protection of our freedom, advancement of our society, and the right for change as Americans. Has anyone ever stop and wonder if any of the changes are what got us here? You can continue to change but from my experience I have seen change that made things worse. I've also seen people try to cover what really needs to be done by have that 'change' to occur so that it can cover the root cause of the issue.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Chao create by idiots and we follow them
It is funny how you really can tell who really knows versus those who think they know versus those who just don't know. I keep this short as I am filled with many strands of thoughts after thoughts and if I were to put all of it in this blog I would need pages after pages.
But simple observation is that we have a lot of people who we think are experts make the worse suggestion for us. They tell other people how the market will be or how they should invest. Just look at CNBC or Fox television. There are a lot of bad shows there. Entertaining yes for the investment geeks and the financial hogs that likes facts. But when you really look deeper in the shows and the web financial articles they do not know much except they report on news what we really know already or bring in facts that we don't know but appears that they are the experts. When they save it is the government, then we say it is the government. When we say it is the hedge fund, then we say it is the hedge fund. When they say it is the speculative mortgage invests, then we say yeah, it must be that too. Bottom line, is that when things are good anything can be the cause of it and it is the same when things are bad take your pick as to why things are bad. But that is not necessary the solution. Remember things are connected but doesn't mean that they are the cause or more important that correct the cause is the solution. This is especially true in the finance world. Yes does not seem logical, but finance in a world of sales and virtual money is not logical. So it bring me up to another point is that I think the problem is that these days we have many great sales people who were mistaken to be experts just because they can talk fast and can use cleaver words. But the bottom line is that many use the same line or same discipline. If you look around many ask questions and have the reason why it was caused, but not many offer the solution. I think it comes down to someone can be very smart, even ivy league smart or just with stellar experience in their resume, but what is important is financial wisdom and the ability to have the ethics to carry out the idea that it is beyond the the noise.
So what is my prediction? Well today we went up 900 points. My prediction that this is the worse thing that it can be done for the market right now. I think it just mean we are heading for a new low and hopefully a bottom at around mid 7500. Why, well I think that the 700 billion dollar bailout is a disaster and nobody can hold someone responsible for using my tax dollar. Plus the government continue to feed the banks with further bailouts. Think about this, the government is telling the banks do something with the money and loan it. Instead what we are experiencing is that they will investment, they may decide to loan, they will continue to operate by paying their employees and as well as pay out the contract to the executive for millions of dollars. Most people by now should see that the bailout was a marketing plan to trick people to invest in the market and it was not about a plan to help those who got caught in the fall of the financial markets. So what is happening now? I think people withdrew from their accounts and need to find a place to put it. Plus the government is forcing the banks to put the money to work without asking whether if it makes sense to. I think that the bottom line is that the real bottom will not happen until the devaluation of the dollar and before that the Fed will lower the rates. Although I believe that the banks are the main cause of the this mess (not the only cause), I am unsure what needs to be done to the banks. Maybe it just about having the government own the largest two banks and get into the banking business until the liquidity issue is flowing correctly. Then they can deregulate the banks again. It is a tough call. But the banks needs to be there, but also there are a lot of crap in the banks that needs major flushing. I don't care what reason people can give, but nothing they do really deserve the amount of pardon they get from the risk that impose on the market. It seems like we know how to create compensation package, but we fail to tie that their compensation with the performance of the company or investment that they represent.
Well one last thought. To get through this market take time to listen what the idiots are talking about, but learn to use your common sense, and most of all, money is only last as long as you do.
But simple observation is that we have a lot of people who we think are experts make the worse suggestion for us. They tell other people how the market will be or how they should invest. Just look at CNBC or Fox television. There are a lot of bad shows there. Entertaining yes for the investment geeks and the financial hogs that likes facts. But when you really look deeper in the shows and the web financial articles they do not know much except they report on news what we really know already or bring in facts that we don't know but appears that they are the experts. When they save it is the government, then we say it is the government. When we say it is the hedge fund, then we say it is the hedge fund. When they say it is the speculative mortgage invests, then we say yeah, it must be that too. Bottom line, is that when things are good anything can be the cause of it and it is the same when things are bad take your pick as to why things are bad. But that is not necessary the solution. Remember things are connected but doesn't mean that they are the cause or more important that correct the cause is the solution. This is especially true in the finance world. Yes does not seem logical, but finance in a world of sales and virtual money is not logical. So it bring me up to another point is that I think the problem is that these days we have many great sales people who were mistaken to be experts just because they can talk fast and can use cleaver words. But the bottom line is that many use the same line or same discipline. If you look around many ask questions and have the reason why it was caused, but not many offer the solution. I think it comes down to someone can be very smart, even ivy league smart or just with stellar experience in their resume, but what is important is financial wisdom and the ability to have the ethics to carry out the idea that it is beyond the the noise.
So what is my prediction? Well today we went up 900 points. My prediction that this is the worse thing that it can be done for the market right now. I think it just mean we are heading for a new low and hopefully a bottom at around mid 7500. Why, well I think that the 700 billion dollar bailout is a disaster and nobody can hold someone responsible for using my tax dollar. Plus the government continue to feed the banks with further bailouts. Think about this, the government is telling the banks do something with the money and loan it. Instead what we are experiencing is that they will investment, they may decide to loan, they will continue to operate by paying their employees and as well as pay out the contract to the executive for millions of dollars. Most people by now should see that the bailout was a marketing plan to trick people to invest in the market and it was not about a plan to help those who got caught in the fall of the financial markets. So what is happening now? I think people withdrew from their accounts and need to find a place to put it. Plus the government is forcing the banks to put the money to work without asking whether if it makes sense to. I think that the bottom line is that the real bottom will not happen until the devaluation of the dollar and before that the Fed will lower the rates. Although I believe that the banks are the main cause of the this mess (not the only cause), I am unsure what needs to be done to the banks. Maybe it just about having the government own the largest two banks and get into the banking business until the liquidity issue is flowing correctly. Then they can deregulate the banks again. It is a tough call. But the banks needs to be there, but also there are a lot of crap in the banks that needs major flushing. I don't care what reason people can give, but nothing they do really deserve the amount of pardon they get from the risk that impose on the market. It seems like we know how to create compensation package, but we fail to tie that their compensation with the performance of the company or investment that they represent.
Well one last thought. To get through this market take time to listen what the idiots are talking about, but learn to use your common sense, and most of all, money is only last as long as you do.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)